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In 2002, I published a paper on the subject of drought
characterization in the Ojos Negros valley, in Baja California.
Mr. A. V. Shetty, one of my coauthors, had performed a detailed statistical analysis on the data for ten (10) climatological
stations in the vicinity of the valley, located 25 miles east of Ensenada.
The results showed that the average
frequency of droughts in the region was
3.96, i.e., that droughts recurred in the valley approximately every four years.
Afterwards, we followed up with a visit to the valley, where we met the owner of the Ojos Negros Ranch.
I struck a conversation with him, and asked him what was the frequency of droughts
in the valley. He said, without winking an eye: "Every four years."
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